Wednesday, October 28, 2026

Marriage Is Not a Gamble

 When it is the work of God, experienced over the course of the marriage

October 28, 2026

Card games are of two kinds: chance and skill. When it is a game of chance, it becomes a matter of probability. When you toss a coin, it will fall on heads or on tails. Toss it enough times, and it will even out.

Las Vegas, is a gambling haven, not heaven. It has been the ruin of many. The odds are always stacked in favour of the house. It stands to logic. Why else would they be in this business? Their regular customers are compulsive gamblers. They do win up to a point. That is the house strategy. Make them win till it becomes an addiction, then make them lose big.

The house plays its cards when the stakes become high. They swoop in like vultures, their prey in their crosshairs, and wipe the table clean of all the winnings in one swift move, leaving their prey gasping as their winnings, until now, are whisked away in a flash. Their pockets scorched. Their heart scarred. Their mind in a daze. The folly of gambling. Wisdom is in doing an activity of skill. You will always win. Better and better rewards as your skill become better and better.

Then there are the smart ones. They play the house at their own game. They start with small stakes and don’t mind losing until they win. The philosophy of probability is simple. When you lose, you lose in a row; when you win, you win in a row. They are not pathological gamblers, but data scientists who understand the rules of probability. They are scientific. They are logical. It is a skill learnt from hard work. From thinking through issues. At times, it is a life-or-death issue.

Once upon a time, a princess had to choose between three princes: Noble, Debonair, and Valiant. The king decided it would be by a duel. Each would be given a pistol with one bullet, to be refilled if eligible for another shot. They will stand equidistant from each other, and by turn shoot at one of the two suitors. One who survives will marry the princess. Nobel is a crack shot. In mock shoots, he hits his target 100% of the time. Debonair is at 80%. And Valiant, the weakest, is at 60%. That is, the last two miss their shots 20% and 40% of the time, respectively.

For the princess, it is love at first sight when she sees Valiant. Blind love, if you like. She wants Valiant to win, and of course, Valiant wants to win. But the chances are not good for him, as he is not as good a shooter as the other two. The king is in a quandary when he hears of his daughter’s choice. Having announced the duel, he has to proceed with it. He does something. He says the worst shooter, Valiant, will shoot first, followed by Debonair, and then Nobel, if he has not been shot by then. Bit macabre.

The princess does the math for Valiant to have more than a 50% chance of winning the duel. Valiant has the first shot. He believes he should shoot at the most dangerous adversary, the crack shot Nobel. Two things will happen. Valiant kills Nobel. There is a 60% chance. There’s a 40% chance he will miss. What happens if Valiant misses? It will be Debonair’s turn, who can do either of two things: Shoot at Valiant or shoot at Nobel. If at Valiant, then there’s an 80% chance that Valiant will be dead. So, Valiant rethinks his strategy and considers shooting Debonair. 60% chance Valiant will kill him, and if so, what happens next? Debonair will not get a turn because he is dead. Nobel will then shoot at Valiant. And Valiant will be dead. Remember, Nobel is a crack shot. 100% wins.

What happens if Valiant misses when he shoots at Debonair? There’s a 40% chance of that happening. Then Debonair would shoot next. What will Debonair do? Debonair will probably shoot at Nobel, with an 80% chance that Nobel will die. But there is a 20% chance that he misses. Let’s say he kills him. Then what happens next? It is Valiant’s turn again. Only Debonair is left. He has a 60% chance of killing him. That is better than half what the princess wanted.

That’s a lot of math. But the point is: Valiant must miss shooting Nobel to give Debonair an 80% chance to kill Nobel. It is a skill that would save Valiant’s life and have the princess as his wife.

Jesus did not choose his twelve disciples. His Father did. “Jesus went up on a mountain to pray, and he prayed to God all night. At daybreak he called together all of his disciples and chose twelve of them to be apostles.” (Lk 6:12-13). The choices were eclectic: a former Zealot, a former (crooked) tax collector, an impetuous fisherman, two “sons of thunder,” and a man named Judas Iscariot.

God had a purpose for each. Each had their vulnerabilities which they would outgrow when Jesus went to the cross, died, and was resurrected. Judas, too. He carried the most pain from his betrayal. He did not think he could be forgiven. His idea of repentance: to kill himself. The rest became men of God. Holiness was a gift bestowed on them. Holiness does not depend on human merit, culture, personality, effort, or achievement. It is entirely God’s creation and gift.

Marriage is not a gamble when the decision is the Father’s choice. He does not see as we see. “And when the Philistine looked about, and saw David, he disdained him: for he was but a youth, and ruddy, and of a fair countenance.” (1 Sam 17:42). He sees beyond into what would make a holy marriage. Go to the mountain and pray to the Father as Jesus did. He will give you the answer.

St. Thérèse of Lisieux wrote that there is more power in one little act done with all the love one possesses than in the most impressive spiritual displays or works of service if they are not rooted in pure love for God. She wrote of how one moment of sincere worship brings more joy to Christ than anything we could ever “do” for him.

Marriage is one of those decisions to be ‘rooted in pure love of God’; then the choice of spouse becomes divine. Don’t get into a duel to get the math right: right height and weight, education level, family background, spouse’s net worth, fair, dusky, or dark. Shooting for the best. All this is important. Marriage is not a game. It is not about winning. It is about losing. Oneself to another. Being holy. Possible only if it is God’s will, however that is to be discerned.

- Mathew Anthony